At the World Nuclear Association's Symposium50, Kirsty Gogan, Managing Partner at LucidCatalyst and a Founding Director and Co-CEO of TerraPraxis, delivered a compelling joint keynote with Urenco. Kirsty, along with Magnus Mori, Head of Advanced Fuels at Urenco, shared initial findings from a new joint study that explores how SMRs can serve industries such as data centers, synthetic fuels, and the critical area of coal repowering.
The study outlines four scenarios—from current limited deployment to a revolutionary vision of 700 GW by 2050—highlighting how innovation in manufacturing, regulatory approaches, site availability, and capital access can accelerate nuclear’s role in a sustainable energy future.
- The Current Scenario reflects today’s limited deployment confined to the existing project pipeline, with deployment below 1 GW per year, and costs exceeding $100/MWh, making it difficult to meet industrial procurement needs.
- The Programmatic Scenario aims for around 120 GW by 2050 through sustained government support and improved project management, reducing costs to about $90–125/MWh, though still facing challenges in competitiveness.
- The Breakout Scenario leverages existing reactor designs and world-class shipyard manufacturing capabilities to reach 347 GW, with costs dropping to $60–90/MWh, enabling deployment at hundreds of sites to serve industrial demands.
- The most ambitious, the Transformation Scenario, involves fully re-engineering nuclear into a mass-produced product—using factory assembly lines, product-based licensing, and supply chains producing standardized components—that could enable deployment timelines measured in months. This could reach over 700 GW by 2050, with costs estimated between $40–70/MWh, making nuclear competitive with natural gas even without policy support.
The study also considers four demand scenarios based on different policy environments, long-term gas prices, energy security premiums, and decarbonization commitments, showing how the accessible market for SMRs can vary widely depending on these factors.
A key enabler of this transformation is the deployment of "Delivery Innovation." Moving from bespoke, on-site projects to scaled, factory-made nuclear modules—supported by evolving regulations that favor product-based licensing and broader site development—will be essential. Additional drivers include expanding site availability—where national site qualification programs can identify and prepare suitable locations—improving access to mainstream financing, as nuclear projects become more predictable and marketable, and developing a mature industrial ecosystem that includes vendors, supply chains, skilled workers, and experienced project developers.
TerraPraxis is leading a global REPOWER Consortium to develop fast, low-cost, and repeatable solutions for re-purposing existing coal plants—addressing the urgent need for reliable energy to meet the demands of industries like data centers, steel, cement, aviation, and shipping, which cannot be powered solely by intermittent renewables or traditional nuclear. The report emphasizes how these combined innovations can unlock substantial market opportunities and accelerate the transition toward a comprehensive, low-carbon industrial energy future.